Marketing plans logic

The problem of setting up a plan for marketing is twofold – either for one time campaigns or for the ongoing activity of the whole business.

One time planning, one off campaign

The goal of the campaign is clearly stated, defined on provided budget and expected goals. Two sides of the same coin, if we know only one then we can calculate the other. If we do not know either side, the question is why are they doing the campaign, what led us to the decision to launch this campaign. If an agency is delivering the campaign, the following question can be directed to them – what can you bring us in terms of orders and revenue for the provided budget. Visits and CPC are nice, but orders and revenue are what ultimately we want from campaigns. Focus on the endgame.

One time campaign expectation is to be based on long term strategy, state of the current situation against the continuous, all year plan. Fe. if we see that we fall below our revenue goal for the year, we can decide to do a one-time acquisition campaign, by which we expect to catch up with the long term plan. Therefore, the goal for this one-time campaign should bring benefit to the fulfillment of the long term strategy.

Campaign type: Brand campaign
Primary KPI: direct and brand visits from new customers (and related orders and revenue!). Can also be viewed as an uplift in total revenue and orders in months after the brand campaign. Post view attribution comes very handily for this point
Associated KPIs: impressions, frequency, reach, % reach in the target group

Campaign type: Acquisition campaign
Primary KPI: revenue from new orders
Associated KPIs: no. of orders from new, AOV of new, visits from new customers, ROI per new customer (CLV/CPA)

Campaign type: Retention campaign
Primary KPI: revenue from existing customers
Associated KPIs: CPA of orders from existing (guide them via unpaid channels), AOV of returning, order frequency, ARPU in high-frequency cases

Continuous campaign, continous planning, continuous evaluation.

Ongoing plan for the year, which will enable us to measure the year to date performance against business goal. This business goal is defined by the board or CEO and tends to be stated in the format relative to the previous year. Imagine it as a task to generate last year’s profit +30%.

Name of the game here is the ability to control. If we are sure that we can control results with enough precision then we have made a siginificant first step towards hitting our goal.

Without changes in external factors, we should be able to repeat results from last week in the current week. If we can succeed here repeatedly, we can now confidently step into making changes in the budget split and quite accurately estimate the results. On the level of a business unit we can set up plans against two types of indicators:
1. absolute metric, such as profit. Tells us where we need to go.
2. relative KPI, such as mromi. Tells us at what price.

The optimal scenario is when we can fully control each week’s performance.
This is rarely the case, so if there is a significant difference between our expectation and reality the questions to ask are:

1. did external factors change? If yes, which and how?

External factors such as weather, holidays, market entry of a strong competitor and others. For each of these, it is important to understand the impact on your business and underlying data. For example, weather, which is a very strong indicator of customer behaviour. If there is a sunny weekend outside, we cannot expect many people to stay at home and place orders. If on the other side it got suddenly cold and rainy, it makes a lot of sense to ramp up our campaign investment and catch the increased demand.
If we did not identify any changes in external factors, we can move to the next point.

2. did we do something differently? Examine positive and negative changes against last week.

If we improved, we should continue and make note of this activity. If we got worse, we should stop or alter the new activity. To identify the source of the change, spread out major changes across several weeks. If you are planning to change the targeting of campaigns, switch performance agency and launch a new website, do not do it in one week. What to do, if we are investing but returns do not arrive:
1. check lower level metric in terms of DuPont logic
2. go over channels in Performance Monitor and see their evolution in terms of relative metrics CTR, CR, CPA, AOV and mRomi.

Dupont pyramid

DuPont is a logic of KPI cascading. A top-down approach, which decomposes KPIs into its components and evaluates these separately.

Pyramid example below. Level of pyramid signified by number, with 1 being the highest level of the hierarchy.

Goal example > Increase profit by 20% and keep same mromi

The big picture, healthy strategy for increasing market share is to keep marketing profit and increase revenue. This way we cover more area while keeping our PL result on bearable levels, which enable company operations to continue.

After additional market share is obtained (let’s say revenue jump of 10%), follow-up optimization will keep revenue and increase marketing profit, yielding the fruit of our efforts.

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